World Populations May Shrink After Mid-Century
2020-07-18
LRC
TXT
大字
小字
滚动
全页
1The time of growing human populations may be ending, a new study shows.
2And that move will affect society, the economy and the environment.
3Today, the world is home to about 7.8 billion people.
4The study found that the world's population may top out at 9.7 billion on or around the year 2064.
5But researchers think it could shrink to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
6The findings appeared in the medical publication The Lancet.
7The numbers come from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle.
8Those estimates disagree with the findings of the United Nations Population Division.
9Its experts expect the population in 2100 to be 10.9 billion and rising.
10U.N. Population Division chief John Wilmoth has called the new estimates "extreme."
11If the study proves to be correct, however, the changes brought on by a shrinking population could be great.
12"I think this is one of the more profound changes that's faced humanity ever," said Chris Murray.
13He is the director of the IHME and a co-author of the study.
14The new estimates would be great news for the environment.
15Fewer people would make fewer pollutants, for example.
16This would lower demand for food, reducing the demand that agriculture puts on land and water.
17But a shrinking population could be very bad for the economy.
18Decreasing populations mean fewer people are working, which means lower gross domestic product (GDP).
19It also means fewer people are able to buy things, and buying things is the basis of the international economy.
20"What happens when you don't have young people buying their first house...buying the first car?" asked Darrell Bricker.
21He is co-writer of the book, "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline."
22Bricker was not involved in the study.
23Also, populations age as birth rates fall.
24"This is actually more serious than just simple population decline," said Zhenchao Qian, a sociology professor at Brown University in Rhode Island.
25He was also not involved with the research.
26A smaller workforce would be supporting a larger population of older adults, Qian said.
27He added that this puts great demands on paying for healthcare and social programs.
28Population decreases could also have geopolitical affects.
29Fewer workers also mean fewer soldiers, Murray said.
30"The balance of power between nation-states has always been related in some ways to the size of the working-age population," he said.
31Birth rates have been decreasing worldwide because women are getting more education and face fewer restrictions on birth control.
32"It's really a story about female empowerment," Bricker said.
33The main difference between the IHME estimate and the U.N. study is what researchers expect will happen after birth rates hit bottom.
34Population numbers change little when women have about two children each.
35This is known as the replacement rate.
36Across wealthier countries, the average birth rate is more like 1.6.
37The U.N. believes birth rates will rise again over time to 1.75.
38But Chris Murray disagrees.
39"We see no sign of that," he said.
40He believes that decreasing birth rates in places like Japan and parts of Europe will expand to other countries.
41By 2100, his group estimates that nearly every country in the world would be below the replacement rate.
42Populations in 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand and Spain, would be half what they were in 2017.
43But only if Murray and IHME researchers are right.
44The U.N.'s John Wilmoth notes that both groups are basing their projections on "what's still early experience in the lives of a few countries. So...there's great uncertainty about that," he said.
45"We will know much more about that in 10 or 20 years," he added.
46"But for now, we're both guessing."
47Murray said countries will have three ways to keep their populations from decreasing.
48"One is to make it easier for women to work and have children," he said.
49Most countries have policies to help working mothers, he added, but that alone does not bring the birth rate to the replacement rate.
50The second way is to open their borders to immigration.
51But many governments, including the Trump administration in the United States, are not open to increased immigration.
52Anger about the European Union's migration policies was a major issue in Britain's vote to leave the EU.
53Ibrahim Abubakar is director of the University College London Institute for Global Health.
54In an opinion piece published in The Lancet, he wrote if the IHME's estimates are only 50 percent right, migration would be necessary for all nations.
55Finally, some countries might decide to take away women's reproductive health rights in an effort to pressure them to have more children.
56He called that third way "very undesirable."
57I'm Susan Shand.
1The time of growing human populations may be ending, a new study shows. And that move will affect society, the economy and the environment. 2Today, the world is home to about 7.8 billion people. The study found that the world's population may top out at 9.7 billion on or around the year 2064. But researchers think it could shrink to 8.8 billion by the end of the century. 3The findings appeared in the medical publication The Lancet. 4The numbers come from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle. Those estimates disagree with the findings of the United Nations Population Division. Its experts expect the population in 2100 to be 10.9 billion and rising. 5U.N. Population Division chief John Wilmoth has called the new estimates "extreme." 6If the study proves to be correct, however, the changes brought on by a shrinking population could be great. 7"I think this is one of the more profound changes that's faced humanity ever," said Chris Murray. He is the director of the IHME and a co-author of the study. 8The new estimates would be great news for the environment. Fewer people would make fewer pollutants, for example. This would lower demand for food, reducing the demand that agriculture puts on land and water. 9But a shrinking population could be very bad for the economy. 10Decreasing populations mean fewer people are working, which means lower gross domestic product (GDP). It also means fewer people are able to buy things, and buying things is the basis of the international economy. 11"What happens when you don't have young people buying their first house...buying the first car?" asked Darrell Bricker. He is co-writer of the book, "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline." Bricker was not involved in the study. 12Also, populations age as birth rates fall. 13"This is actually more serious than just simple population decline," said Zhenchao Qian, a sociology professor at Brown University in Rhode Island. He was also not involved with the research. 14A smaller workforce would be supporting a larger population of older adults, Qian said. He added that this puts great demands on paying for healthcare and social programs. 15Population decreases could also have geopolitical affects. Fewer workers also mean fewer soldiers, Murray said. 16"The balance of power between nation-states has always been related in some ways to the size of the working-age population," he said. 17Female empowerment 18Birth rates have been decreasing worldwide because women are getting more education and face fewer restrictions on birth control. 19"It's really a story about female empowerment," Bricker said. 20The main difference between the IHME estimate and the U.N. study is what researchers expect will happen after birth rates hit bottom. 21Population numbers change little when women have about two children each. This is known as the replacement rate. Across wealthier countries, the average birth rate is more like 1.6. 22The U.N. believes birth rates will rise again over time to 1.75. 23But Chris Murray disagrees. 24"We see no sign of that," he said. 25He believes that decreasing birth rates in places like Japan and parts of Europe will expand to other countries. 26By 2100, his group estimates that nearly every country in the world would be below the replacement rate. Populations in 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand and Spain, would be half what they were in 2017. 27But only if Murray and IHME researchers are right. 28'Great uncertainty' 29The U.N.'s John Wilmoth notes that both groups are basing their projections on "what's still early experience in the lives of a few countries. So...there's great uncertainty about that," he said. 30"We will know much more about that in 10 or 20 years," he added. "But for now, we're both guessing." 31Murray said countries will have three ways to keep their populations from decreasing. 32"One is to make it easier for women to work and have children," he said. 33Most countries have policies to help working mothers, he added, but that alone does not bring the birth rate to the replacement rate. 34The second way is to open their borders to immigration. But many governments, including the Trump administration in the United States, are not open to increased immigration. Anger about the European Union's migration policies was a major issue in Britain's vote to leave the EU. 35Ibrahim Abubakar is director of the University College London Institute for Global Health. In an opinion piece published in The Lancet, he wrote if the IHME's estimates are only 50 percent right, migration would be necessary for all nations. 36Finally, some countries might decide to take away women's reproductive health rights in an effort to pressure them to have more children. He called that third way "very undesirable." 37I'm Susan Shand. 38VOA's Steve Baragona reported this story. Susan Shand adapted it for Learning English. George Grow was the editor. 39________________________________________________________________ 40Words in This Story 41profound - adj. deep, dramatic 42author - n. one who writes an essay, book or article 43gross domestic product - n. the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.Compare with 44geopolitical - adj. relating to politics, especially international relations, as influenced by geographical factors. 45decline - n. a decrease or lessening